Listen to an AI audio recording of this newsletter
Every March, something remarkable happens.
Millions of people fill out brackets for the NCAA tournament, March Madness, knowing full well that their predictions will almost certainly be wrong. In fact, the NCAA has long noted that the odds of picking a perfect bracket are roughly 1 in 9.2 quintillion. And yet, people don’t approach their brackets like statisticians. They approach them like fans.
They pick their team.
Even when the numbers say they shouldn’t.
That single decision captures something that traditional strategy metrics struggle to explain. It’s the difference between a customer and a fan.
And it’s why I’ve found myself asking a different question lately: what happens when we take the idea of Customer Lifetime Value and look at it through the lens of a fan?
That topic has been coming up more in my work, including in a book I’ve been writing with Peter Fader, and in a conference Outthinker cohosted last week at The Wharton School in partnership with the Mack Institute for Innovation Management.
The topic was Fan Lifetime Value.
Because what we’re seeing across industries, not just in sports, is that some relationships behave very differently from what traditional metrics assume. They are more durable. More emotional. More expansive.
Which leads to a simple question: what happens when Customer Lifetime Value is seen through the lens of Fan Lifetime Value?
Because CLV is powerful. But it’s also often underutilized, misunderstood, or treated as a backward-looking metric.
When you shift from customer to fan, you don’t discard CLV. You start to see where it might be incomplete.
And where the real opportunity might be even bigger.
The Small Change That Changes Everything
At first glance, Fan Lifetime Value sounds like a minor tweak. Just one word swapped.
But as I explored this idea in a recent conversation with Jovin Hurry, it became clear that this is not a semantic shift. It is a strategic one.
Customer Lifetime Value asks: How much will this individual spend over time?
Fan Lifetime Value invites a different question: What is the total value of this relationship across identity, time, and community?
That shift opens up a new way of thinking about growth.
Fans don’t behave like customers. They behave like believers.
The Power of Identity
One of the most striking insights from our discussion was this: fans attach identity to what they follow.
A customer might prefer a brand.
A fan defends it.
Think about sports rivalries. A fan of Liverpool doesn’t simply prefer Liverpool. They argue for it. They wear it. They pass it down.
As Jovin described, “Fandom often becomes tribal, embedded in families, cultures, and communities.”
This is where the idea of Fan Lifetime Value begins to diverge from traditional CLV.
Because identity changes behavior:
- It increases retention
- It amplifies advocacy
- It lowers price sensitivity
- It creates emotional resilience, even through losing seasons
When you move from customer to fan, you are no longer competing only on product. You are competing on meaning.
Lifetime … Across Generations
Customer lifetime value is typically constrained to several years … at best a lifetime. You like American Eagle for some teenage years, then Urban Outfitters during college, then J. Crew as an early professional, before you graduate to Versace.
Fan lifetime value is not. As one Goldman Sachs analyst put it, the lifetime of a fan could be 99+ years. Fandom is passed on like a genetic trait.
A fan of the Philadelphia Eagles doesn’t just emerge in isolation. They are often created through family, geography, or shared experiences. And once created, that loyalty can persist for decades or even generations.
We saw this vividly in the aftermath of the Eagles’ Super Bowl victory, which I wrote about previously. What mattered wasn’t just the win. It was the release of decades of emotional investment. Fans who had waited, suffered, believed, and stayed.
That is not a transaction.
That is accumulated value.
And it compounds.
A parent who passes that loyalty to a child effectively doubles the lifetime value. Not because of increased spending per transaction, but because of continuity of identity.
This is why fan-based value can dwarf traditional CLV. It expands both the time horizon and the unit of analysis, from individuals to networks.
The Explosion of Monetization Surfaces
Once you begin to see the world through the lens of fandom, another shift becomes clear. The number of ways to create value expands dramatically.
Traditionally, sports teams have monetized fans through ticket sales or media rights. And too often, that becomes the narrow lens through which we value fandom.
At last week’s Wharton event on Fan Lifetime Value, this limitation was unmistakable. Each stakeholder—teams, TV networks, sponsors—measured fandom through their own lens: ticket revenue, ad sales, brand spend.
But the fan doesn’t experience the relationship that way.
Today, that is just one of many surfaces:
- Streaming and media rights
- Merchandise and apparel
- Fantasy sports and betting
- Membership and loyalty programs
- Digital collectibles and gaming
- Travel and tourism
- Sponsorship ecosystems
- Social and community platforms
And increasingly, entirely new layers are emerging.
Take esports. What began as niche gaming has evolved into a global industry with hundreds of millions of viewers. Or consider how fans can now follow not just teams, but individual players, tracking performance, engaging with content, and even investing in future earnings.
As we discussed, fandom is no longer linear. It is multi-layered:
- You can be a fan of a player
- A team
- A league
- A sport
- Or even the experience itself
Each layer represents a new opportunity to create and capture value.
Who Captures Value?
This raises a critical strategic question: Who actually captures the value of fandom?
In some cases, it is centralized. Leagues like the NFL tightly coordinate ownership of media rights, teams, and revenue sharing.
In others, it is fragmented.
A tennis fan, for example, might spend money across tournaments, apparel brands, streaming services, and individual players. The value is real but dispersed.
And increasingly, players themselves are becoming economic actors. They are no longer just participants in the system. They are brands. They monetize through:
- Sponsorships
- Equity partnerships
- Media ventures
- Emerging platforms like voice licensing and digital identity
Michael Jordan’s Air Jordan line is perhaps the most iconic example. It is no longer the exception.
This creates a more complex ecosystem where teams, leagues, media companies, platforms, and players are all competing to capture slices of the same fan relationship.
Intensity Is the Multiplier
If CLV is about duration, fan-driven value is about intensity.
A customer might buy a product repeatedly.
A fan:
- Watches every game
- Buys merchandise
- Travels to events
- Engages on social platforms
- Influences others
- Defends the brand publicly
And importantly, they do this regardless of short-term performance.
This is where March Madness becomes such a powerful metaphor.
Fans don’t choose based on probability. They choose based on allegiance. And that allegiance drives behavior that no algorithm can fully predict.
The Strategic Implication
So what does this mean for companies beyond sports?
It means that the most valuable relationships you can build are not transactional. They are relational and identity driven.
It means shifting from asking: “How do we increase repeat purchases?”
To asking: “How do we create fans?”
Because fans:
- Stay longer
- Spend more
- Refer more
- Resist competitors more effectively
But creating fans requires a different approach.
It requires:
- Purpose beyond product: What do you stand for? What does being your customer say about someone?
- Community, not just consumption: How do customers connect with each other, not just with you?
- Participation, not just purchase: Can they influence, contribute, or co-create?
- Continuity over campaigns: Are you building a relationship that compounds over time?
From Matchstick to Nuclear Reaction
In our conversation, one metaphor stuck with me: Customer relationships are like a matchstick. Fan relationships are more like a chain reaction.
They expand. They sustain themselves. They grow beyond the initial spark.
And once ignited, they can be incredibly powerful.
The Future Belongs to Fans
As markets become more saturated and products more commoditized, the companies that win will not be those that optimize transactions.
They will be those that cultivate devotion.
Because in a world where everyone can offer something similar, the ultimate differentiator is not what you sell.
It is what people believe about themselves when they choose you.
And that is the essence of Fan Lifetime Value.
Not just what a customer is worth. But what a fan is willing to stand for. Even when the odds say they shouldn’t.
To learn more about turning customers into fans, join Outthinker.com today.